Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.106071 0.121300 0.137846 0.157144 0.179024 0.203047 0.231412
2026-01-25 0.081296 0.100775 0.123592 0.152244 0.187219 0.228480 0.280809
2026-02-01 0.062211 0.083132 0.109409 0.144733 0.190878 0.248999 0.327650
2026-02-08 0.049328 0.070797 0.099605 0.140905 0.198396 0.275367 0.385993
2026-02-15 0.039215 0.060279 0.090388 0.136281 0.204130 0.300350 0.446682
2026-02-22 0.033356 0.054700 0.087082 0.139351 0.221086 0.343349 0.539250
2026-03-01 0.026977 0.047124 0.079508 0.134765 0.225973 0.369567 0.611411
2026-03-08 0.022196 0.041190 0.073454 0.131492 0.232322 0.398905 0.692923
2026-03-15 0.018399 0.036189 0.068051 0.128331 0.238275 0.428404 0.779147
2026-03-22 0.016229 0.033704 0.066584 0.131772 0.256140 0.480448 0.911384
2026-03-29 0.013931 0.030511 0.063248 0.131175 0.266542 0.520801 1.028737
2026-04-05 0.012269 0.028270 0.061338 0.132978 0.281734 0.572005 1.173513
2026-04-12 0.010858 0.026339 0.059849 0.135672 0.299760 0.632422 1.347463
2026-04-19 0.009013 0.023046 0.054892 0.130209 0.300173 0.658310 1.457012
2026-04-26 0.007367 0.019849 0.049533 0.122876 0.295354 0.672821 1.545556
2026-05-03 0.006215 0.017611 0.045951 0.118960 0.297520 0.702580 1.671600
2026-05-10 0.005229 0.015570 0.042443 0.114557 0.297806 0.728269 1.792693
2026-05-17 0.004709 0.014675 0.041646 0.116787 0.314529 0.794062 2.016055
2026-05-24 0.003994 0.013053 0.038616 0.112646 0.314601 0.820608 2.150403
2026-05-31 0.003435 0.011753 0.036200 0.109690 0.317236 0.853803 2.306115
2026-06-07 0.002964 0.010610 0.033992 0.106883 0.319789 0.887184 2.467380
2026-06-14 0.002723 0.010157 0.033722 0.109653 0.338293 0.964539 2.753999
2026-06-21 0.002419 0.009413 0.032415 0.109064 0.347108 1.017456 2.983310